0241/2026 - Contexto político de la vacunación contra la COVID-19 en Brasil: evidencia de un estudio poblacional de ámbito nacional The political context of COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil: evidence from a nationwide population-based study
Examinamos a associação entre o contexto político e a vacinação contra a COVID-19 no Brasil, combinando dados individuais de vacinação de 33.320 participantes do estudo EPICOVID-19 II, representativo da população brasileira, com dados eleitorais municipais do segundo turno da eleição presidencial de 2022. O contexto político municipal foi mensurado pela proporção de votos válidos recebidos pelo candidato à Presidência da República pelo Partido Liberal (PL). Considerou-se esquema vacinal completo contra a COVID-19 o recebimento de duas ou mais doses. Maior apoio municipal ao candidato do PL esteve correlacionado a menor cobertura vacinal (r = -0,37). A cada aumento de 10 pontos percentuais na proporção de votos no candidato do PL, observou-se menor chance de esquema vacinal completo (RO = 0,76; IC95%: 0,72–0,81). Também foi observada associação, de menor magnitude, com a vacinação contra influenza (RO = 0,88; IC95%: 0,82–0,95). Esses achados sugerem que os contextos político e informacional podem influenciar comportamentos relacionados à vacinação e devem ser considerados em futuras estratégias de comunicação em saúde pública, especialmente em cenários de elevada polarização política.
Palavras-chave:
SARS-CoV-2; Vacinação; Vacinas contra a Covid-19; Política; Saúde Pública; Brasil
Abstract:
We examined the association between political context and COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil by linking individual vaccination data from 33,320 participants in the nationally representative EPICOVID-19 II study with municipal electoral data from the second round of the 2022 presidential election. Municipal political context was measured by the proportion of valid votes for the Partido Liberal (PL) presidential candidate. Complete COVID-19 vaccination, at the individual level, was defined as receipt of two or more doses. Higher municipal support for the PL candidate was correlated with lower vaccination coverage (r = -0.37). Each 10-percentage-point increase in PL vote share was associated with lower odds of complete vaccination (OR 0.76; 95% CI 0.72–0.81). A weaker association was also observed for influenza vaccination (OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.82–0.95). These findings suggest that political and informational environments may influence vaccination behaviors and should be considered in future public health communication strategies, particularly in politically polarized settings.
Keywords:
SARS-CoV-2; Vaccinations; Covid-19 vaccines; Politics; Public Health; Brazil
The political context of COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil: evidence from a nationwide population-based study
Resumo (abstract):
We examined the association between political context and COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil by linking individual vaccination data from 33,320 participants in the nationally representative EPICOVID-19 II study with municipal electoral data from the second round of the 2022 presidential election. Municipal political context was measured by the proportion of valid votes for the Partido Liberal (PL) presidential candidate. Complete COVID-19 vaccination, at the individual level, was defined as receipt of two or more doses. Higher municipal support for the PL candidate was correlated with lower vaccination coverage (r = -0.37). Each 10-percentage-point increase in PL vote share was associated with lower odds of complete vaccination (OR 0.76; 95% CI 0.72–0.81). A weaker association was also observed for influenza vaccination (OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.82–0.95). These findings suggest that political and informational environments may influence vaccination behaviors and should be considered in future public health communication strategies, particularly in politically polarized settings.
Palavras-chave (keywords):
SARS-CoV-2; Vaccinations; Covid-19 vaccines; Politics; Public Health; Brazil
Buffarini, R, Victora, C.G, Hallal, PC, Silveira, M. Contexto político de la vacunación contra la COVID-19 en Brasil: evidencia de un estudio poblacional de ámbito nacional. Cien Saude Colet [periódico na internet] (2026/set). [Citado em 06/11/2026].
Está disponível em: http://cienciaesaudecoletiva.com.br/artigos/contexto-politico-de-la-vacunacion-contra-la-covid19-en-brasil-evidencia-de-un-estudio-poblacional-de-ambito-nacional/20139
