0185/2021 - O PARADOXO DA SIMPSON: UM ESTUDO DE CASO DEMOGRÁFICO SOBRE DINÂMICA DA POPULAÇÃO, POBREZA E DESIGUALDADE SIMPSON’S PARADOX: A DEMOGRAPHIC CASE STUDY ABOUT POPULATION DYNAMICS, POVERTY AND INEQUALITY
O Brasil experimenta uma transição demográfica marcada por desigualdades regionais. É possível supor que aspectos relacionados à pobreza, desenvolvimento e desigualdade possam reverter os efeitos de associação dos indicadores da transição demográfica, tipificando um fenômeno conhecido como Paradoxo de Simpson. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar o efeito da desigualdade, pobreza e desenvolvimento social na dinâmica populacional brasileira, verificando a ocorrência do paradoxo de Simpson na transição demográfica. Foram utilizados dados populacionais oriundos dos Censos Demográficos brasileiros de 1991 a 2010, segundo idade no Brasil e unidades da federação. Foi avaliada a correlação entre os indicadores demográficos, estratificando das unidades da federação em grupos de acordo com os indicadores sociais. Há um avanço das UF com relação aos indicadores sociais, ainda que persista a heterogeneidade. A transição vem ocorrendo em todas as UF, com persistência da distância entre elas, mesmo que com redução ao longo dos anos. Observou-se o paradoxo de Simpson quando a análise foi realizada segundo ano censitário, e segundo indicador social, principalmente para o ano de 1991. O principal desafio é compreender como a dinâmica demográfica brasileira pode ser analisada e compreender de que forma os fatores contextuais alteram seu ritmo, quantum e padrão.
Palavras-chave:
Demografia, Transição Demográfica, Pobreza, Iniquidade, Desenvolvimento, Brasil.
Abstract:
Brazil is experiencing a demographic transition marked by regional inequalities. It is possible to assume that aspects related to poverty, development and inequality can reverse the association effects of the demographic transition indicators, typifying a phenomenon known as Simpson\'s Paradox. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of inequality, poverty, and social development on the Brazilian population dynamics, verifying the occurrence of Simpson\'s paradox in the demographic transition. Population datathe Brazilian Demographic Censuses1991 to 2010 were used, according to age in Brazil and federation units. The correlation between demographic indicators was evaluated, stratifying the units of the federation into groups according to social indicators. There is an advance of UFs in relation to social indicators, although heterogeneity persists. The transition has been occurring in all FUs, with the distance between them persisting, even though it has been decreasing over the years. Simpson\'s paradox was observed when the analysis was carried out according to the census year, and according to the social indicator, mainly for the year 1991. The main challenge is to understand how the Brazilian demographic dynamics can be analyzed and to understand how the contextual factors change its rhythm, quantum, and pattern.
SIMPSON’S PARADOX: A DEMOGRAPHIC CASE STUDY ABOUT POPULATION DYNAMICS, POVERTY AND INEQUALITY
Resumo (abstract):
Brazil is experiencing a demographic transition marked by regional inequalities. It is possible to assume that aspects related to poverty, development and inequality can reverse the association effects of the demographic transition indicators, typifying a phenomenon known as Simpson\'s Paradox. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of inequality, poverty, and social development on the Brazilian population dynamics, verifying the occurrence of Simpson\'s paradox in the demographic transition. Population datathe Brazilian Demographic Censuses1991 to 2010 were used, according to age in Brazil and federation units. The correlation between demographic indicators was evaluated, stratifying the units of the federation into groups according to social indicators. There is an advance of UFs in relation to social indicators, although heterogeneity persists. The transition has been occurring in all FUs, with the distance between them persisting, even though it has been decreasing over the years. Simpson\'s paradox was observed when the analysis was carried out according to the census year, and according to the social indicator, mainly for the year 1991. The main challenge is to understand how the Brazilian demographic dynamics can be analyzed and to understand how the contextual factors change its rhythm, quantum, and pattern.
Guimarães, R.M, Andrade, F. C. D.. O PARADOXO DA SIMPSON: UM ESTUDO DE CASO DEMOGRÁFICO SOBRE DINÂMICA DA POPULAÇÃO, POBREZA E DESIGUALDADE. Cien Saude Colet [periódico na internet] (2021/Mai). [Citado em 06/07/2024].
Está disponível em: http://cienciaesaudecoletiva.com.br/artigos/o-paradoxo-da-simpson-um-estudo-de-caso-demografico-sobre-dinamica-da-populacao-pobreza-e-desigualdade/18084?id=18084
