0183/2021 - Social isolation relaxation and the effective reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 in twelve Brazilian cities O relaxamento do isolamento social e o número efetivo de reprodução (Rt) do COVID-19 em doze municípios brasileiros
Este trabalho analisou as estratégias de relaxamento do isolamento social adotadas pelas doze maiores cidades brasileiras em 2020, em relação ao número de casos, número de óbitos e ao número efetivo de reprodução (Rt), considerados internacionalmente os critérios epidemiológicos fundamentais para permitir uma maior mobilidade da população nos espaços públicos. O governo federal não estabeleceu diretrizes únicas nem para o fechamento nem para a abertura, e os estados e municípios assumiram o protagonismo na definição da estratégia. Até 31 de julho, em Belém do Pará, Fortaleza, Manaus, Recife e Rio de Janeiro, onde o pico epidêmico já havia sido ultrapassado, e em Salvador e São Paulo, em que o pico parecia já ter sido atingido, o Rt seguiu uma curva decrescente após as aberturas. Em Porto Alegre, aonde a curva epidêmica foi achatada, houve aumento do Rt após o início do relaxamento. Em Belo Horizonte, Brasília, Curitiba e Goiânia, nos quais a curva também foi achatada, o Rt manteve-se estável após a abertura. A decisão de como operacionalizar o relaxamento do isolamento social e a velocidade com que isso aconteceu foi heterogênea entre as cidades estudadas. Além disso, amplas estratégias de testagem populacional não foram realizadas em nenhuma das cidades.
Palavras-chave:
COVID-19, Isolamento Social, Políticas de Saúde, Cidades
Abstract:
We analyzed the social isolation relaxation strategies adopted by the twelve biggest Brazilian cities in 2020, in relation to the number of cases, number of deaths and the effective reproduction number (Rt), which are internationally considered the fundamental epidemiological criteria for allowing wider population mobility in public spaces. The Brazilian central government has not set unique guidelines neither for closure nor for opening, and states and cities have taken the lead in strategy definition. Until July 31 2020, in Belém do Pará, Fortaleza, Manaus, Recife and Rio de Janeiro, where the epidemic peak had already been surpassed, and in Salvador and São Paulo, in which the peak seemed to be already reached, the Rt curve followed a decreasing path after the openings. Porto Alegre, a city in which the epidemic curve was flattened, had an increase in Rt after the start of relaxation. In Belo Horizonte, Brasília, Curitiba and Goiânia, where the curve was also flattened, the Rt remained stable after the opening. The decision on how to operationalize the relaxation of social isolation and the speed with which it happened was heterogeneous among the cities studied. Also, broad population testing strategies were not done in any of the cities.
Keywords:
COVID-19, Social Isolation, Health Policies, Cities
O relaxamento do isolamento social e o número efetivo de reprodução (Rt) do COVID-19 em doze municípios brasileiros
Resumo (abstract):
We analyzed the social isolation relaxation strategies adopted by the twelve biggest Brazilian cities in 2020, in relation to the number of cases, number of deaths and the effective reproduction number (Rt), which are internationally considered the fundamental epidemiological criteria for allowing wider population mobility in public spaces. The Brazilian central government has not set unique guidelines neither for closure nor for opening, and states and cities have taken the lead in strategy definition. Until July 31 2020, in Belém do Pará, Fortaleza, Manaus, Recife and Rio de Janeiro, where the epidemic peak had already been surpassed, and in Salvador and São Paulo, in which the peak seemed to be already reached, the Rt curve followed a decreasing path after the openings. Porto Alegre, a city in which the epidemic curve was flattened, had an increase in Rt after the start of relaxation. In Belo Horizonte, Brasília, Curitiba and Goiânia, where the curve was also flattened, the Rt remained stable after the opening. The decision on how to operationalize the relaxation of social isolation and the speed with which it happened was heterogeneous among the cities studied. Also, broad population testing strategies were not done in any of the cities.
Palavras-chave (keywords):
COVID-19, Social Isolation, Health Policies, Cities
de Castro, M. S. M., Tavares, A. B., Martins, A. L. J., Silva, G. D. M., Miranda, W.D, Santos, F. P., Paes-Sousa, R.. Social isolation relaxation and the effective reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 in twelve Brazilian cities. Cien Saude Colet [periódico na internet] (2021/mai). [Citado em 19/12/2024].
Está disponível em: http://cienciaesaudecoletiva.com.br/artigos/social-isolation-relaxation-and-the-effective-reproduction-number-rt-of-covid19-in-twelve-brazilian-cities/18082?id=18082
