0338/2020 - Monitoramento e projeções das metas de fatores de risco e proteção para o enfrentamento das doenças crônicas não transmissíveis nas capitais brasileiras Monitoring and projection of targets for risk and protection factors for coping with noncommunicable diseases in Brazilian capitals
Monitorar as tendências e projeções das metas de fatores de risco e proteção para o enfrentamento das doenças crônicas não transmissíveis nas capitais brasileiras e verificar se a crise econômica e as políticas de austeridade interferiram no comportamento dessas metas. Estudo de série temporal com dados do Sistema de Vigilância de Fatores de Risco e Proteção para Doenças Crônicas por Inquérito Telefônico. Foram analisadas as tendências das prevalências de fumantes, obesidade, prática de atividade física, consumo de frutas e hortaliças e de bebidas alcóolicas, e suas projeções até 2025. Empregou-se a regressão de Prais-Winsten. Utilizou-se a Série Temporal Interrompida de 2006 a 2014 e 2015 a 2019. Entre 2006 e 2014, houve redução de fumantes (15,6 para 10,8%), aumento da obesidade (11,8 para 17,9%), do consumo de frutas e hortaliças (20,0 para 24,1%), de atividade física (29,9 para 35,3%) e do uso de álcool (15,6 para 16,5%). A maioria dos indicadores demonstrou pior desempenho a partir de 2015. Pelas projeções, as metas de deter a obesidade e reduzir o uso de álcool não seriam atingidas. Houve mudanças no comportamento dos indicadores, o que reforça a importância do monitoramento contínuo, e da sustentabilidade das ações, políticas e programas de promoção a saúde e de controle dessas doenças e seus fatores de risco.
Palavras-chave:
Doenças não Transmissíveis; Fatores de Risco; Fatores de Proteção; Análise de Séries Temporais Interrompida; Recessão Econômica.
Abstract:
To monitor the trends and projections of targets for risk and protection factors for coping with noncommunicable diseases in Brazilian capitals and to verify whether the economic crisis and austerity policies have interfered with the behavior of these targets. Time series study with datathe Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey. Were analyzed trends in the prevalence of smokers, obesity, physical activity, consumption of fruits and vegetables and harmful use of alcohol, and their projections until 2025. Prais-Winsten regression was used. It was used The Interrupted Time Series, considering 2006 to 2014 and 2015 to 2019. Between 2006 and 2014, there was a reduction in smokers (15.6 to 10.8%), increase in obesity (11.8 to 17.9%), consumption of fruits and vegetables (20.0 to 24.1%), physical activity (29.9 to 35.3%) and alcohol use (15.6 to 16.5%). Most indicators have shown performance worse since 2015. According to projections, the targets for reduce obesity and the harmful use of alcohol will not be achieved. There were changes in the indicators profiles which reinforces the importance of the continuous monitoring and sustainability of actions, policies and programs to promote health, and control these diseases and their risk factors.
Keywords:
Noncommunicable Diseases; Risk Factors; Protective Factors; Interrupted Time Series Analysis; Economic Recession.
Monitoring and projection of targets for risk and protection factors for coping with noncommunicable diseases in Brazilian capitals
Resumo (abstract):
To monitor the trends and projections of targets for risk and protection factors for coping with noncommunicable diseases in Brazilian capitals and to verify whether the economic crisis and austerity policies have interfered with the behavior of these targets. Time series study with datathe Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey. Were analyzed trends in the prevalence of smokers, obesity, physical activity, consumption of fruits and vegetables and harmful use of alcohol, and their projections until 2025. Prais-Winsten regression was used. It was used The Interrupted Time Series, considering 2006 to 2014 and 2015 to 2019. Between 2006 and 2014, there was a reduction in smokers (15.6 to 10.8%), increase in obesity (11.8 to 17.9%), consumption of fruits and vegetables (20.0 to 24.1%), physical activity (29.9 to 35.3%) and alcohol use (15.6 to 16.5%). Most indicators have shown performance worse since 2015. According to projections, the targets for reduce obesity and the harmful use of alcohol will not be achieved. There were changes in the indicators profiles which reinforces the importance of the continuous monitoring and sustainability of actions, policies and programs to promote health, and control these diseases and their risk factors.
Palavras-chave (keywords):
Noncommunicable Diseases; Risk Factors; Protective Factors; Interrupted Time Series Analysis; Economic Recession.
Silva, A.G, Azeredo, R. T., Prates, E.J.S, Malta, D.C.. Monitoramento e projeções das metas de fatores de risco e proteção para o enfrentamento das doenças crônicas não transmissíveis nas capitais brasileiras. Cien Saude Colet [periódico na internet] (2020/Nov). [Citado em 01/07/2024].
Está disponível em: http://cienciaesaudecoletiva.com.br/artigos/monitoramento-e-projecoes-das-metas-de-fatores-de-risco-e-protecao-para-o-enfrentamento-das-doencas-cronicas-nao-transmissiveis-nas-capitais-brasileiras/17820?id=17820
