0533/2018 - Expansão, deslocamento e interiorização do homicídio no Brasil, entre 2000 e 2015: Uma análise espacial. Expansion, displacement and ruralization of homicide in Brazil, between 2000 and 2015: A spatial analysis.
O objetivo do estudo é analisar a mudança do padrão espacial da taxa de mortalidade por homicídios (TMH) no Brasil, entre 2000 e 2015. Trata-se de estudo ecológico por microrregiões das TMH do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade, utilizando os índices de Moran, e clusters de áreas críticas (95% de confiança). A TMH cresceu 6% (para 29,1/100 mil hab.; IC95% 28,9; 29,4), e em 80% (n=422) das microrregiões entre 2000 e 2015. O número de áreas com altas TMH (> 38,2/100 mil) aumentou 2,7 vezes. Em 2000, as áreas com TMH mais altas concentravam-se em Pernambuco, São Paulo, Mato Grosso e Rio de Janeiro; em 2015, passam a ocupar estados das regiões Norte e Nordeste. Áreas mais críticas estão no litorânea do Nordeste e fronteiras do Pará e Maranhão na Amazônia Legal. As menores TMH (até 19,1/100 mil) estão mais presentes nas microrregiões de São Paulo e Santa Catarina, com aglomerados menos críticos nas regiões Sudeste e Sul. O homicídio se expandiu para dentro do território nacional, com deslocamento entre regiões, em direção principalmente as mais pobres, que exibem áreas mais críticas em cenários distintos, como fronteiras de estados e litoral. Inversamente, há contração expressiva do homicídio em estados de regiões de desenvolvimento alto, com presença de áreas menos críticas.
Palavras-chave:
Homicídio. Violência. Análise por Conglomerados. Análise Espacial.
Abstract:
To analyze the variation of the spatial pattern of the homicide rate in Brazil, between 2000 and 2015. Ecological study by micro-regions of homicidesthe Mortality Information System, using the Moran indexes, and clusters of critical areas (95% confidence). Rate increased by 6% (to 29.1/100,000 inhabitants (95% CI 28.9, 29.4), and in 80% (n=422) of the micro regions between 2000 and 2015. The number of areas with high rate (>38.2/100,000) increased 2.7 fold. In 2000, the areas with the highest rate were concentrated in Pernambuco, São Paulo, Mato Grosso and Rio de Janeiro; by 2015, it will occupy the majority of states in the North and Northeast. Critical areas are in the coastal of the Northeast and borders of Pará and Maranhão in the Legal Amazon. The lowest rate (up to 19.1/100,000) are present in the micro regions of São Paulo and Santa Catarina, with less critical clusters in the Southeast and South regions. There is a movement to reorganize violence. The homicide has expanded into the national territory, with displacement between regions, mainly towards the poorest, which exhibit more critical areas in several scenarios, such as state borders and the coast. Conversely, there is an expressive contraction of homicide in states of regions of high development, with the presence of less critical areas.
Keywords:
Homicide. Violence. Conglomerate Analysis. Space Analysis.
Expansion, displacement and ruralization of homicide in Brazil, between 2000 and 2015: A spatial analysis.
Resumo (abstract):
To analyze the variation of the spatial pattern of the homicide rate in Brazil, between 2000 and 2015. Ecological study by micro-regions of homicidesthe Mortality Information System, using the Moran indexes, and clusters of critical areas (95% confidence). Rate increased by 6% (to 29.1/100,000 inhabitants (95% CI 28.9, 29.4), and in 80% (n=422) of the micro regions between 2000 and 2015. The number of areas with high rate (>38.2/100,000) increased 2.7 fold. In 2000, the areas with the highest rate were concentrated in Pernambuco, São Paulo, Mato Grosso and Rio de Janeiro; by 2015, it will occupy the majority of states in the North and Northeast. Critical areas are in the coastal of the Northeast and borders of Pará and Maranhão in the Legal Amazon. The lowest rate (up to 19.1/100,000) are present in the micro regions of São Paulo and Santa Catarina, with less critical clusters in the Southeast and South regions. There is a movement to reorganize violence. The homicide has expanded into the national territory, with displacement between regions, mainly towards the poorest, which exhibit more critical areas in several scenarios, such as state borders and the coast. Conversely, there is an expressive contraction of homicide in states of regions of high development, with the presence of less critical areas.
Palavras-chave (keywords):
Homicide. Violence. Conglomerate Analysis. Space Analysis.
Soares Filho, A.M, Merchan-Hamann, E, Vasconcelos, C.H. Expansão, deslocamento e interiorização do homicídio no Brasil, entre 2000 e 2015: Uma análise espacial.. Cien Saude Colet [periódico na internet] (2018/Dez). [Citado em 17/09/2024].
Está disponível em: http://cienciaesaudecoletiva.com.br/artigos/expansao-deslocamento-e-interiorizacao-do-homicidio-no-brasil-entre-2000-e-2015-uma-analise-espacial/17066?id=17066
