0041/2021 - PROPOSTA DE MENSURAÇÃO DO NÍVEL DE URBANICIDADE DAS CIDADES BRASILEIRAS A PARTIR DOS DADOS DO CENSO DEMOGRÁFICO DE 2010 PROPOSAL FOR MEASURING THE LEVEL OF URBANICITY OF BRAZILIAN CITIES BASED ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC CENSUS DATA 2010
Objetivo: Apresentar uma proposta de mensuração do nível de urbanicidade das cidades brasileiras com dados do censo 2010. Métodos: Estudo ecológico que usou a classificação oficial do IBGE (urbano rural) e a de Veiga (2002) (Pequeno, Médio e Grande porte). Utilizou-se árvore de classificação para predição com Validação Cruzada. Testaram-se dois modelos de análise. No modelo 1, as variáveis independentes foram as características físicas e sociais das cidades, e o desfecho a classificação no critério IBGE. No modelo 2, além das variáveis usadas no modelo 1, incluiu-se como covariável o critério de Veiga (2002). Construída a árvore, calcularam-se a sensibilidade, especificidade e acurácia. Resultados: O modelo 2 apresentou ganhos estatisticamente significante na predição do nível de urbanicidade, aumentando as estimativas de sensibilidade e acurácia nos conjuntos usados para teste. Municípios de grande porte foram classificados automaticamente como urbano no modelo 2. Mas, para predizer a urbanicidade das demais cidades houve a combinação dos critérios de Veiga (2002) com outras características físicas e sociais das cidades. Conclusões: A combinação de indicadores no modelo 2 permitiu definir critérios quantitativos para criar tipologias de classificação do urbano rural para o territorial municipal brasileiro, semelhante ao que ocorrer em outros países.
Palavras-chave:
Cidades, Urbanicidade, Desigualdades, Desenvolvimento de escala, Metodologia
Abstract:
Objective: To present a proposal for measuring the level of urbanicity in Brazilian cities based on datathe census 2010. Methods: Ecological study that used the official classification of IBGE (urban rural) and Veiga (2002) (Small, Medium and Large). A classification tree was used for prediction with Cross Validation. Two models of analysis were tested. In model 1, the independent variables were the physical and social characteristics of the cities, and the outcome was the classification in the IBGE criterion. In model 2, in addition to the variables used in model 1, the Veiga (2002) criterion was included as a covariate. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were calculated. Results: Model 2 showed statistically significant gains in the prediction of the level of urbanicity, increasing the sensitivity and accuracy estimates in the sets used for testing. Large cities were automatically classified as urban in model 2. However, to predict the urbanicity of other cities, Veiga (2002) criteria were combined with other physical and social characteristics of cities. Conclusions: The combination of indicators in model 2 allowed the definition of quantitative criteria to create typologies for classifying the rural urban to the Brazilian municipal territory, similar to what occurs in other countries.
PROPOSAL FOR MEASURING THE LEVEL OF URBANICITY OF BRAZILIAN CITIES BASED ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC CENSUS DATA 2010
Resumo (abstract):
Objective: To present a proposal for measuring the level of urbanicity in Brazilian cities based on datathe census 2010. Methods: Ecological study that used the official classification of IBGE (urban rural) and Veiga (2002) (Small, Medium and Large). A classification tree was used for prediction with Cross Validation. Two models of analysis were tested. In model 1, the independent variables were the physical and social characteristics of the cities, and the outcome was the classification in the IBGE criterion. In model 2, in addition to the variables used in model 1, the Veiga (2002) criterion was included as a covariate. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were calculated. Results: Model 2 showed statistically significant gains in the prediction of the level of urbanicity, increasing the sensitivity and accuracy estimates in the sets used for testing. Large cities were automatically classified as urban in model 2. However, to predict the urbanicity of other cities, Veiga (2002) criteria were combined with other physical and social characteristics of cities. Conclusions: The combination of indicators in model 2 allowed the definition of quantitative criteria to create typologies for classifying the rural urban to the Brazilian municipal territory, similar to what occurs in other countries.
Oliveira, B.L.C.A., Santos, A.M. PROPOSTA DE MENSURAÇÃO DO NÍVEL DE URBANICIDADE DAS CIDADES BRASILEIRAS A PARTIR DOS DADOS DO CENSO DEMOGRÁFICO DE 2010. Cien Saude Colet [periódico na internet] (2021/fev). [Citado em 22/12/2024].
Está disponível em: http://cienciaesaudecoletiva.com.br/artigos/proposta-de-mensuracao-do-nivel-de-urbanicidade-das-cidades-brasileiras-a-partir-dos-dados-do-censo-demografico-de-2010/17940?id=17940
