0157/2025 - Tendencia de homicidios en México, 1990-2022: Análisis por puntos de inflexión y desigualdad social. Homicide Mortality Trends in Mexico, 1990-2022: analysis by inflection points
En México se ha reportado un incremento de homicidios en los últimos años logrando impactar de manera negativa en la esperanza de vida. El objetivo del estudio fue identificar la tendencia de las tasas de homicidios en México y estimar las brechas de inequidad de acuerdo con el rezago social a nivel estatal durante el periodo 1990-2022. Se realizó un estudio ecológico basado en un análisis joinpoint donde se estimó el cambio porcentual anual de tendencia en las tasas de homicidios. Se estimaron medidas de desigualdad a nivel nacional y estatal. Los resultados muestran una mayor tasa de homicidios entre los hombres respecto a las mujeres. Se presentó una reducción del cambio porcentual anual en las tasas de mortalidad por homicidios a nivel nacional de manera significativa en el periodo 1994-2001 (CPA= -8.31) y el mayor incremento en el CPA se registró en el periodo 2007-2010 (CPA= 37.33) a partir de 2018 existe una leve reducción en los homicidios. Sonora y Colima destacaron por el incremento en las tasas de homicidios al final del periodo estudiado, mientras que la Ciudad de México y Tabasco mostraron una reducción significativa. Resulta necesario identificar los determinante sociales, políticos, económicos y culturales subyacentes para establecer estrategias de prevención y atención.
Palavras-chave:
Homicidio, Estudios de Series Temporales, Inequidades en Salud, México
Abstract:
In Mexico, an increase in homicides has been reported in recent years, negatively impacting life expectancy. The objective of the study was to identify the trend in homicide rates in Mexico and estimate the inequality gaps according to social backwardness at the state level during the period 1990-2022. An ecological study was carried out based on a joinpoint analysis where the annual percentage change in trend in homicide rates was estimated. Measures of inequality were estimated at the national and state levels. The results show a higher homicide rate among men compared to women. There was a significant reduction in the annual percentage change in homicide mortality rates at the national level in the period 1994-2001 (CPA= -8.31) and the largest increase in the CPA was recorded in the period 2007-2010 (CPA= 37.33), as of 2018 there is a slight reduction in homicides. Sonora and Colima stood out for the increase in homicide rates at the end of the period studied, while Mexico City and Tabasco showed a significant reduction. It is necessary to identify the underlying social, political, economic and cultural determinants to establish prevention and care strategies.
Keywords:
Homicide, Time Series Studies, Health Inequities, Mexico
Homicide Mortality Trends in Mexico, 1990-2022: analysis by inflection points
Resumo (abstract):
In Mexico, an increase in homicides has been reported in recent years, negatively impacting life expectancy. The objective of the study was to identify the trend in homicide rates in Mexico and estimate the inequality gaps according to social backwardness at the state level during the period 1990-2022. An ecological study was carried out based on a joinpoint analysis where the annual percentage change in trend in homicide rates was estimated. Measures of inequality were estimated at the national and state levels. The results show a higher homicide rate among men compared to women. There was a significant reduction in the annual percentage change in homicide mortality rates at the national level in the period 1994-2001 (CPA= -8.31) and the largest increase in the CPA was recorded in the period 2007-2010 (CPA= 37.33), as of 2018 there is a slight reduction in homicides. Sonora and Colima stood out for the increase in homicide rates at the end of the period studied, while Mexico City and Tabasco showed a significant reduction. It is necessary to identify the underlying social, political, economic and cultural determinants to establish prevention and care strategies.
Palavras-chave (keywords):
Homicide, Time Series Studies, Health Inequities, Mexico
Medina-Gómez, OS. Tendencia de homicidios en México, 1990-2022: Análisis por puntos de inflexión y desigualdad social.. Cien Saude Colet [periódico na internet] (2025/jun). [Citado em 05/12/2025].
Está disponível em: http://cienciaesaudecoletiva.com.br/artigos/tendencia-de-homicidios-en-mexico-19902022-analisis-por-puntos-de-inflexion-y-desigualdad-social/19633
