0356/2020 - A Spatio-temporal Analysis of Cause-SpecificMortality in São Paulo State, Brazil. Uma Análise Espaço-temporal da Mortalidade por Causas Específicas no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil.
Usando dados do Ministério da Saúde do Brasil para cinco causa de mortes, e num período de 17 anos, aplicamos modelos espaço-temporais Bayesianos em 644 municípios do estado de São Paulo, utilizando um modelo logístico binário que especifica se o óbito foi (ou não) de uma determinada causa. Modelamos os efeitos temporais da mortalidade com B-splines, e os componentes espaciais foram estimados através de campos aleatórios Gaussiano e de Markov. Simulamos a inferência estatística com Monte Carlo via cadeias de Markov. Os resultados demonstraram tendência consistente de queda nas mortes por doenças infecciosas e causas externas, enquanto mortes por neoplasias e doeanças respiratórias aumentaram no tempo. Cardiovascular foi a única causa de morte constante no tempo. As causas de morte apresentaram variações espaciais e temporais entre os municípios, com consideravel mudanças em anos sucessivos. A mortalidade por doenças infecciosas se concentrou nos municípios do Noroeste do estado em 2000, mas mudou para a parte Sudeste em 2016, um desenvolvimento semelhante as causas externas de morte. Este estudo identificou áreas com maior e menor chances de morte entre diferentes causas, e pode ser útil no monitoramento de doenças, especialmente se considerarmos pequenas unidades espaciais.
Palavras-chave:
Causa de Morte, Pequenas Áreas, Análise Espaço-Temporal, Brasil.
Abstract:
Using five cause-specific mortality data sourced by the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and over 17 years period, we applied Bayesian spatiotemporal models on 644 municipalities of the state of São Paulo, using logistic model to the binary outcome that specifies whether or not the death wasa specific cause. We modeled the temporal mortality effects using B-splines, while the spatial components were considered through Gaussian and Markov random field, and inference was based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrate consistent downward trend in mortalityinfectious and parasitic diseases and external causes, while thoseneoplasms and respiratory are rising. Cardiovascular is the only cause-specific death that is kept constant in time. All the causes of death considered show heterogeneous spatial and temporal variations among the municipalities, which sometimes change considerably within successive years. Mortalityinfectious diseases clustered around the Northwestern municipalities in 2000, but changes to the Southeastern part in 2016, a similar development as external death causes. The study identifies areas with increased and decreased odds mortality and could be useful in disease monitoring, especially if we consider small spatial units.
Keywords:
Cause of Death, Small Areas, Spatio-temporal Analysis, Brazil.
Uma Análise Espaço-temporal da Mortalidade por Causas Específicas no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil.
Resumo (abstract):
Using five cause-specific mortality data sourced by the Brazilian Ministry of Health, and over 17 years period, we applied Bayesian spatiotemporal models on 644 municipalities of the state of São Paulo, using logistic model to the binary outcome that specifies whether or not the death wasa specific cause. We modeled the temporal mortality effects using B-splines, while the spatial components were considered through Gaussian and Markov random field, and inference was based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrate consistent downward trend in mortalityinfectious and parasitic diseases and external causes, while thoseneoplasms and respiratory are rising. Cardiovascular is the only cause-specific death that is kept constant in time. All the causes of death considered show heterogeneous spatial and temporal variations among the municipalities, which sometimes change considerably within successive years. Mortalityinfectious diseases clustered around the Northwestern municipalities in 2000, but changes to the Southeastern part in 2016, a similar development as external death causes. The study identifies areas with increased and decreased odds mortality and could be useful in disease monitoring, especially if we consider small spatial units.
Palavras-chave (keywords):
Cause of Death, Small Areas, Spatio-temporal Analysis, Brazil.
Gayawan, E, Lima, E.E.C. A Spatio-temporal Analysis of Cause-SpecificMortality in São Paulo State, Brazil.. Cien Saude Colet [periódico na internet] (2020/nov). [Citado em 24/12/2024].
Está disponível em: http://cienciaesaudecoletiva.com.br/artigos/a-spatiotemporal-analysis-of-causespecificmortality-in-sao-paulo-state-brazil/17838?id=17838&id=17838
