Author:

• Maria Fernanda Tourinho Peres - PERES, M.F.T. - são paulo, SP - Faculdade de Medicina, Departamento de medicina Preventiva, Universidade de São Paulo - <mmftperes@usp.br>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7049-905X

Co-author(s):

• Juliana Feliciano de Almeida - ALMEIDA, J.F. - Núcleo de Estudos da Violência, Universidade de São Paulo - <juliana_feliciano@yahoo.com.br>
• Diego Vicentin - Vicentin, D. - Núcleo de Estudos da Violência, Universidade de São Paulo - <diego.vicentin@gmail.com>
• Caren Ruotti - RUOTTI, C. - Núcleo de Estudos da Violência, Universidade de São Paulo. - <cauruotti@usp.br>
• Marcelo Batista Nery - NERY, M.B. - Núcleo de Estudos da Violência, Universidade de São Paulo. - <mbnery@gmail.com>
• Magdalena Cerda - CERDA. M. - Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University - <mc3226@columbia.edu>
• Nancy Cardia - CARDIA, N. - Núcleo de Estudos da Violência, Universidade de São Paulo. - <ngcardia@gmail.com>
• Sérgio Adorno - ADORNO, S. - Departamento de Sociologia, Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas, Universidade de São Paulo; Núcleo de Estudos da Violência, Universidade de São Paulo. - <sadorno@usp.br>

Thematic Area:

Epidemiologia

Abstract:

Objective: to analyze the association between homicides and public security indicators in São Paulo Municipality (MSP) between 1996 and 2008, before and after controlling for unemployment rate and the proportion of youth in population. Methodology: Time-series ecological study having the MSP between 1996 and 2008 as units of analysis. Dependent variable: number of homicide deaths per year; Principal independent variables: arrest-incarceration rate (TAE), access to firearms (AAF), and police activity (ATP). Data analysis was conducted in Stata.IC 10.0. Simple and Multiple negative binomial regression models were run. Results: Homicide death and TAE, and Homicide death and ATP were significantly associated in simple regression analysis. Access to firearm were not significantly associated to the fall in the number of homicide death (p>0,05). After controlling for covariates the associations with both the public security indicators were not significant. Conclusions: In MSP the role of public security indicators loss their importances as explanatory factor to homicide fall, after adjustment for unemployment rate and youth in population. The results reinforce the importance of socioeconomic and demographic factors for the change in the public security scenario in MSP.

Keywords:

homicide mortality time series ecological studies determinants

Content:

Access Issue in Scielo

Other languages: