Author:

• GUILLERMO JULIAN GONZALEZ-PEREZ - González-Pérez, G. J. - GUADALAJARA - UNIVERSIDAD DE GUADALAJARA - <ggonzal@cencar.udg.mx>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2307-0186

Co-author(s):

• MARIA GUADALUPE VEGA-LOPEZ - Vega-Lopez, M. G. - UNIVERSIDAD DE GUADALAJARA - <mgvega.lopez@gmail.com>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1781-2596
• CARLOS E. CABRERA-PIVARAL - CABRERA-PIVARAL, CE - UNIVERSIDAD DE GUADALAJARA/INSTITUTO MEXICANO DEL SEGURO SOCIAL - <carlos.cabrera@prodigy.net.mx>
• AGUSTIN VEGA-LOPEZ - Vega-Lopez, A - UNIVERSIDAD DE GUADALAJARA - <agustin_vegalopez@yahoo.com.mx>
• ARMANDO MUÑOZ DE LA TORRE - MUÑOZ DE LA TORRE, A - UNIVERSIDAD DE GUADALAJARA - <armandomuñozdelatorre@yahoo.com.mx>

Thematic Area:

Epidemiologia

Abstract:

This study seeks to analyze the trend of homicide rates (total and by firearm) in México between 1990 and 2009 and identify the variables that better explain the geographical variations of these rates in biennium 2008-2009. Homicide rates -adjusted for age- were calculated for both sexes between 1990 and 2009 and for each state in 2008-2009; using a multiple linear regression analysis, factors associated to the interstate variations in the homicide rates were identified. Results show that homicide rate in Mexico markedly decreased between 1990 and 2007, but have doubled in last two years (from 7.6 to 16.6 per 100,000); in 2009, male homicide rate was almost 9 times higher than female rate and about two-thirds of homicides were committed by firearms. Multivariate analysis reveals that impunity, drug trafficking, alcohol and drug consumption and school dropout in basic education–in that order- are key factors to understand the geographical variations of homicide rates in Mexico in 2008-2009. Findings suggest that to reduce the number of homicide victims and spatial variations in the rate, it is necessary not only fighting the drug cartels, but above all to implement structural reforms to the criminal justice system and diminish the socioeconomic disparities among states.
Keywords: Homicide, Firearms, Violence, Mexico

Keywords:

Homicide Firearms Violence Mexico

Content:

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