Author:

• Maria Rita Donalisio - Donalisio, M.R - <rita.donalisio@gmail.com>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4457-9897

Co-author(s):

• Alexandra Boing - Boing, A. - <acboing@gmail.com>
• Ana Paula Sayuri Sato - Sato, A.P.S - <sah@usp.br>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8601-5884
• Edson Zangiacomi Martinez - Martinez, E.Z - <edson@fmrp.usp.br>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0949-3222
• Mariana Xavier - Xavier, M. - <marryox@hotmail.com>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8791-3520
• Rosa Lívia Freitas de Almeida - Almeida, R.L.F. - <rosaliviafreitas59@gmail.com>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6423-543X
• Rafael da Silveira Moreira - Moreira, R. S. - <moreirars@cpqam.fiocruz.br>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0079-2901
• Rejane Christine de Sousa Queiroz - Queiroz, R.C.S - <queiroz.rejane@ufma.br>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4019-2011
• Alicia Matijasevich - Matijasevich, A. - <alicia.matijasevich@fm.usp.br; amatija@yahoo.com>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0060-1589

Abstract:

The drop in childhood vaccination coverage (VC), including poliomyelitis, has
become a health concern. In this sense, it is crucial to estimate coverage over time to
assess the proposed goals and challenges in Brazil. The objective was to analyze the
temporal trend of coverage of the three doses of the polio vaccine in the first 12 months
of life between 2011 and 2021, in addition to mapping vaccination coverage in Brazil,
including the Covid-19 pandemic period. An ecological study was carried out using
interrupted time series (STI) techniques and spatial analysis, with datathe National
Immunization Program Information System. The VC trend was adjusted by the NeweyWest variance estimator according to the federated units and the Brazilian Deprivation
Index. The VC distribution was estimated by Bayesian models and the spatial clusters by
the global and local Moran index, identifying areas of lower coverage in the health
regions. There was a reduction in the VC over the period in all regions, being more
pronounced in the North and Northeast regions and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The
biggest drops were identified in states and health regions with greater social vulnerability
after 2019. The drop in VC shows that the risk of reintroduction of the wild virus is
imminent and the challenges need to be faced with the strengthening of the Brazilian
Health System (SUS)

Keywords:

Vaccination Coverage; Immunization; Spatial Analysis; Ecological Studies; Poliomyelitis, Covid-19

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