0541/2012 - HOMICIDIOS POR ARMAS DE FUEGO EN ARGENTINA, 1991-2006. UN ANÁLISIS DE NIVELES MÚLTIPLES HOMICIDES COMMITTED BY FIREARMS IN ARGENTINA DURING 1991-2006. A MULTILEVEL ANALYSIS
• Marina Gabriela Zunino - Zunino, M.G. - Remedios de Escalada, Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina., Outro País/Another Country - Universidad Nacional de Lanús - <mg_zunino@yahoo.com>
Coautor(es):
• Ana Diez Roux - Diez Roux, A.V. - Center for Social Epidemiology and Population Health, University of Michigan, United State - <adiezrou@umich.edu>
• Edinilsa Ramos de Souza - SOUZA, ER - Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro - Centro Latino-Americano de Estudos de Violência e Saúde Jorge Careli (CLAVES/ENSP/FIOCRUZ), Brasil - <edinilsa@claves.fiocruz.br>
Área Temática:
Epidemiologia
Resumo:
Se analizó la influencia de variables de distintos niveles de agregación y el efecto del tiempo sobre la ocurrencia de homicidios por arma de fuego (HAF) en Argentina durante el periodo 1991-2006, con la técnica de niveles múltiples. Se utilizó un modelo de regresión de Poisson de tres niveles. El primer nivel correspondió a la distribución del número de HAF según sexo y grupo de edad para cada departamento y período; el segundo nivel a la variabilidad a lo largo del tiempo (cuatrienios) de los HAF al interior de cada departamento; y el tercero a la variabilidad entre departamentos según Nivel de Urbanización, Porcentaje de hogares con Necesidades Básicas Insatisfechas y Porcentaje de Población Ocupada. Se trabajó con 15.067 HAF en mayores de 14 años, ocurridos en los 493 departamentos en 1991-2006. El riesgo de morir por HAF fue superior en varones y en personas de 15 a 29 años de edad; el aumento de la edad se asoció con un menor riesgo. El efecto de la edad fue mayor en las zonas centro-urbanas. Se registró un mayor riesgo en 1999-2002. El Nivel de Urbanización fue la variable socioeconómica de mayor importancia. El riesgo de morir por HAF en las zonas centro-urbanas fue 1,6 veces mayor que en las zonas no centrales. En ambas zonas el riesgo fue superior en 1999-2002.
Palavras-chave:
HomicidiosArmas de fuegoAnálisis MultinivelFactores socioeconómicosArgentina
Abstract:
The aim was to analyze the influence of variables at different levels of organization and the effect of time on the occurrence of homicides committed by firearms (HAF) in Argentina during 1991-2006, using multilevel analysis. We used a three level Poisson model defined as follows: The first level corresponded to the distribution of the number of HAF by sex and age group within departments and 4 year calendar time periods; the second corresponded to time (4 year calendar periods) within Departments; the third modeled variability across Departments as a function to time invariant characteristics. Departmental level factors investigated included: Level of Urbanization, Percentage of homes with Non-satisfied Basic Necessities and the percentage of working adults. There were 15067 HAF in persons of 14 or more years of age during 1991-2006 in the 493 departments. The risk of dying was higher in men and persons of 15 to 29 years; higher ages were associated with a lower risk. The effect of age was stronger in central-urban zones. The risk was higher in 1999-2002 than in other periods. NU was the socioeconomic variable most strongly associated with HAF risk. The risk of dying by HAF was 1.6 times higher in central-urban compared with no-central zones. In both zones the risk was highest in 1999-2002.
HOMICIDES COMMITTED BY FIREARMS IN ARGENTINA DURING 1991-2006. A MULTILEVEL ANALYSIS
Resumo (abstract):
The aim was to analyze the influence of variables at different levels of organization and the effect of time on the occurrence of homicides committed by firearms (HAF) in Argentina during 1991-2006, using multilevel analysis. We used a three level Poisson model defined as follows: The first level corresponded to the distribution of the number of HAF by sex and age group within departments and 4 year calendar time periods; the second corresponded to time (4 year calendar periods) within Departments; the third modeled variability across Departments as a function to time invariant characteristics. Departmental level factors investigated included: Level of Urbanization, Percentage of homes with Non-satisfied Basic Necessities and the percentage of working adults. There were 15067 HAF in persons of 14 or more years of age during 1991-2006 in the 493 departments. The risk of dying was higher in men and persons of 15 to 29 years; higher ages were associated with a lower risk. The effect of age was stronger in central-urban zones. The risk was higher in 1999-2002 than in other periods. NU was the socioeconomic variable most strongly associated with HAF risk. The risk of dying by HAF was 1.6 times higher in central-urban compared with no-central zones. In both zones the risk was highest in 1999-2002.
Zunino, M.G., Diez Roux, A.V., SOUZA, ER. HOMICIDIOS POR ARMAS DE FUEGO EN ARGENTINA, 1991-2006. UN ANÁLISIS DE NIVELES MÚLTIPLES. Cien Saude Colet [periódico na internet] (2012/jun). [Citado em 22/12/2024].
Está disponível em: http://cienciaesaudecoletiva.com.br/artigos/homicidios-por-armas-de-fuego-en-argentina-19912006-un-analisis-de-niveles-multiples/10441?id=10441&id=10441
